Arizona, Where Do We Go From Here?

It has been a few weeks since the election, and I’ve taken the time to reflect on the gains and losses of this cycle.

As someone who was born and raised in Arizona, I’ve witnessed the rapid economic growth that has transformed our state. Historically a Republican stronghold, The Grand Canyon State has seen significant political shifts over recent election cycles. As one of the fastest-growing states, urbanization and evolving political priorities have shaped a more dynamic political landscape, particularly in Maricopa County. With pivotal legislative districts like LD2 and LD9 (Which I personally worked on), Maricopa still serves as a critical bellwether for Arizona’s political direction in the 2026 midterms.

Maricopa County, home to over 60% of Arizona’s population, plays a pivotal role in state and national politics. Once firmly red, Democrats have seen substantial gains in recent years, with notable victories in the 2020 and 2022 elections. This shift towards even more competitive races has kept Republicans on their toes, which is especially consequential for those of us committed to protecting pro-life interests. In such a hotly contested battleground state, it's easy for Republicans to put more "controversial" issues on the back burner.

Arizona’s political landscape may be changing, but this transformation presents an opportunity to frame pro-life values in a way that resonates with the state’s evolving population. Our future depends on our ability to encourage Arizonans to have families and to address the needs of soon-to-be mothers.

Legislative District 2

Under the current map, Donald Trump would have won LD2 in 2020 by just 2.1 percentage points.

Located in the heart of Maricopa County, LD2 has undergone a profound transformation. Once a Republican stronghold, it has seen a growing Democratic presence, fueled by the changes listed above.

LD2 is a bellwether for broader trends in Maricopa County, and its electorate is more moderate than it once was. LD2 voters value pragmatic solutions. Framing the pro-life message around comprehensive family care, including healthcare reform and community support, can help bridge ideological divides. Key factors shaping LD2 include economic concerns, such as rising costs of housing and childcare. These are top priorities for LD2 residents, and the pro-life movement can play a pivotal role by advocating for policies that incentivize starting a family.

Legislative District 9

Joe Biden would have won the district under the current map by a margin of 5.8 percentage points in 2020.

LD9, encompassing suburban and semi-rural areas, stands out for its notably large youth population. One of the district's most pressing issues is the rising cost of housing, which disproportionately impacts younger residents. This challenge presents a unique opportunity to make pro-life messaging more effective by advocating for policies that address housing affordability.

Young Arizonans aren’t rejecting the family-oriented lives their parents lived—they simply can’t afford them. By promoting solutions that make it easier for young people to secure stable housing, we can help create an environment where starting and supporting a family becomes attainable, reinforcing the pro-life commitment to fostering a culture of life and opportunity.

In LD9, a successful pro-life approach must also appeal to suburban families. Economic stability and education are top priorities for suburban voters. Policies that lower childcare costs, expand parental leave, and support adoption services can strengthen the case for life.

Broader Trends in Arizona Politics

Arizona’s political transformation is not just a challenge—it’s a pivotal moment for the pro-life movement to redefine itself and expand its influence. As the state shifts demographically and ideologically, we must acknowledge the trends:

• Independent Voters: Arizona has seen an increase in independent or unaffiliated voters, many of whom are younger, urban residents open to candidates from either party. This trend adds uncertainty to election outcomes but also forces candidates to adopt policies that appeal across party lines.
• Latino Voting Power: As one of the fastest-growing demographics, Latino voters are likely to become increasingly influential. Their concerns—especially around healthcare, immigration, and education—will likely shape Arizona’s policy focus in the coming years. 
• Policy-Driven: Arizonans are increasingly voting based on specific issues rather than strict party loyalty. This trend emphasizes the importance of addressing local concerns, including water management, education reform, and healthcare affordability.
• Urban-Suburban Divide: The divide between urban and suburban Arizona is widening. Urban areas in Maricopa have consistently been Democratic strongholds. However, under Donald Trump, Republicans have made strong gains across the state.

Latino and immigrant populations, for example, often hold culturally pro-life values but may prioritize economic or immigration-related issues. Building meaningful relationships and addressing these intersecting concerns is essential.

To succeed, the pro-life message must be framed to emphasize a holistic vision of human dignity that goes beyond traditional rhetoric. While abortion remains a core concern, the movement must also champion initiatives that protect life in all forms, including the lives of the vulnerable, the elderly, and the unborn, while fostering a supportive environment in which families can thrive. Critics often frame pro-life advocates as indifferent to broader societal issues or overly focused on restrictive legislation. To counter this, the movement must demonstrate an active commitment to social compassion and practical solutions. For example, even addressing Arizona's water shortage can be integrated into a pro-life framework, emphasizing the responsibility to protect resources for future generations.

For both parties, Arizona’s future elections will require nuanced strategies that focus on the needs of its local communities. Democrats will continue to lure younger, more diverse populations, while Republicans may benefit from adopting more populist solutions in Maricopa’s suburban areas. Arizona’s political landscape is far from fixed, and the coming years are likely to see the state solidify its status as a critical swing state. That's why, with compassionate messaging, our pro-life movement must address the unique challenges facing Arizonans while staying true to its core values.